Draft Analysis
by Herm Winningham
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Rounds -10, -9, and -8
The Athletics, with 25 roster positions to fill, took Carlos Beltran, Greg Maddux, and Albert Pujols. I have to consider this an extremely strong start to their rebuilding process, as they now have three players that are all better than their best player last year, as their roster stood at season's end. Let's see if they can trade away all their talent again and get back on the road to the bottom of the standings. Do I hear a 4th round pick for Maddux out in the wilds?
The Colts certainly didn't get Maddux back. Why they even let one of the greatest pitchers in the history of the game get away is way beyond my comprehension. Then, instead of taking back Juan Gonzalez they went out and drafted a young Dave Kingman look-a-like, the 6'6" Adam Dunn. At a neophyte 22 years old, GM Greg is hoping Dunn can rack up about 400 homers before he hits 30 years old. He hit about 50 last year between the major and minors. His 19 in 66 games in the bigs pro-rates to 46 over 162. Of course, we remember how Kingman looked in half of his at bats.
Round -7
The A's stuck to a winning formula with Juan Gonzalez. Now, there's a whiner for you. Win Now seems to be GM Randy's motto this year. Hey, Chris Berman, maybe his name should be Whine Gonzalez. "My pants are too big, the fences are too far way, and it's too cold way up here, and my back it's sore, and …"
The Colts certainly didn't get Gonzalez back. Why they even let one of the greatest hitters in the history of the game get away is way beyond my comprehension. "Just because he's the biggest PITA around," said GM Greg. Instead, Javier Vazquez will wear a Colts uniform next year. Although he took a line drive to the face, abruptly ending his 2001 season in September, "with a little bit of plastic he'll be ready," GM Greg explained. I think it's still a bit of a question mark when someone gets drilled by a baseball, on how he will react the next time he takes the field. I'm sure it's not as bad for a pitcher, but if Vazquez starts doing the Curly shuffle after each pitch, then he's psycho, and the career is shot. One thing is for sure. Vazquez is not Gonzalez. He was ready to get back to action just days after the blast to his noggin. Management kept him home.
Round -6
The A's drafted Billy Koch. Ouch.
The Yankee-Beaneaters drafted Russ Ortiz, not to be confused with Ramon Ortiz, or Ray Ortiz for that matter.
Dec 1, 2001 6:43pm - Ortiz does not throw as hard as Randy Johnson or Curt Schilling -- he's more in the 92-93 mph range -- but he's very effective from the waist up. With the higher strike zone, he can get hitters to chase more of those pitches. He balances his good fastball with an exceptional slow curve, not to mention a slider and changeup. He is also very durable, not prone to injuries and able to pitch into the seventh inning often. (Henry Schulman/TSN)
In other words, good pick.
The Colts drafted Jeff Weaver, otherwise known as Dream Weaver in Detroit circles. Colts, you must be dreaming if you think this guy is finally going to start pitching like MLB brass always thought he would. It's a pipe dream. Nice try, but try again.
Round -5
The A's drafted Paul Lo Duca. One of the surprises in MLB last year, this 29 year old quasi-rookie blew into prominence last year in LA. Is he a one year wonder? He's probably a solid pick, but he could be Rich Gedman.
Braves draft Rafael Palmeiro
- Says GM Frank of the Yankee-Beaneaters, "Getting up there in age and isn't protected anymore but can't argue with home run numbers." I say, at age 37 he's not getting up there, he's there. However, he probably still has another year or three left in his productive little body. He's average 160 games played a year over the past 5 years. He's a Hall of Fame candidate and may reach 500 homeruns before he's done.Yankee-Beaneaters draft John Olerud. For a guy whose only .300 seasons before last were .354 and .363, it was nice to see him put a normal .300 season together. This guy is steady. He looks like Wayne Gretsky. He hits like Mark Messier.
Colts draft Jason Schmidt. Is this an experiment in cloning. The 45's now have 4 pitchers between the ages of 25 and 29, with great potential, and huge question marks. This team is about to climb to dizzying heights, or fall into the pits of hell.
Round -4
The A's drafted someone. They haven't traded any draft picks yet. This, in itself, is a huge improvement. Raul Mondesi is there pick this time. He should bounce back with a big season.
Twins take Eric Milton. He's solid, if not spectacular, but still young. And, he's a Twin Twin!
Senators take Bud Smith.
13 days after throwing a ridiculous 134 pitches in his no-hitter, St. Louis' rookie Smith was brilliant for seven innings vs. the Brewers, allowing three hits, a walk and an unearned run. Smith struck out five. Fantasy Spin: This is a good omen. After a storied history of abusing young pitchers, perhaps our pal Tony La Russa is learning a new trick after all. ARF ARF, Tony. Of course, I have another spin, the Book of James (Bill James). The Great One says, let a 22 year old throw 134 and watch his flame eventually die. Tony has learned zero. Other than that, he could be a real good one. Too young to tell.Braves take Johnny Damon. Doesn't he have a brother who used to sing for the Sex Pistols? Look at .320 - .400 - .500 for his batting, on base, and slugging averages at Fenway. That's pretty impressive. Oakland -Alameda is a killer on hitters. Hmm, I wonder if Giambi will get any better.
Yankee Beaneaters take Aaron Sele. Now pitching in the Big A, Aaron's name has found a home. 17-8 and 4.29 over last 3 years should be about what he does this year, maybe 15-10. Still rather good, however.
Colts take Corey Patterson. What kind of acid is GM Sovan dropping? Huge prospect going nowhere, and may not even get the job in Wrigley. However, he's only 22 and still has plenty of time to learn how to hit the ball. Kind of like a young Kirk Gibson, only smaller. Kind of like a young Mickey Mantle wannabee, aka Bobby Murcer. He won't be Mantle, but if he's Gibson-Murcerish, Colts should be happy.
Cubs take Jose Mesa. Resurrected his career last year and at age 36, has a lot of good reliever years left. He's a stud. Just ask the Colts who drafted him in the 9th round last year.
Round -3
Athletics take Ray Durham. He's been steady over the years, but there's talk on the South Side that his days may be numbered.
Reds take Doug Mientkiewicz. His name sounds fat and slow. His averages .306-.387-.464 are very very good. We'll see.
Twins take Matt Anderson. While he may look like Harpo Marx, he certainly doesn't pitch like him. Harpo had more control.
Dodgers take Jeff Shaw. At age 35, he's just entering his relievers prime.
Mets take Tino Martinez. Maybe the Mets feel a little Bronx magic will rub off on them.
Senators take Rick Ankiel. At one time Ankiel was the 2nd coming, and now he's just hoping for a 2nd outing.
Braves take Joe Mays. Mays had a huge coming out party last year and is expecting much the same as he enters his prime. While he does not have as good an arm as Willie, he certainly has as good a name.
Angels take Randy Wolf. I know the Angels drafted this guy because he likes the last name. GM Brent figures if he can scare you then he can beat you.
Yankees take Kirk Rueter. While not spectacular, Rueter will definitely give the Yankees innings and consistency.
Red Sox take Mike Lowell. He has developed into a solid A player, and may have been the best bet at 3rd base in this draft. An A player is someone who will give you an OPS of .800 or better.
Colts take Juan Uribe. Not to be confused with my good friend Jose Uribe, a career .610 OPS who made me look good, this Uribe may be better known as B-Rod in a couple of years. He's young, has good power, and has none of the batting traits of his father.
Cubs take Robert Person. He has been getting quietly better with each passing year, finally getting 15 W's last season, and likely destined for the same or more in the coming campaign.
Round -2
Athletics take Shawn Estes. Estes is one of those quiet and unassuming players that really don't stand out, but also does not hurt you.
Reds take Ishii Kazuhisa. If he's as good as the last guy made in Japan, then watch out.
Twins take Darrin Erstad. Look for Erstad to bounce back big time.
Dodgers take Todd Walker. What I like about Walker is his potential to be great. What I don't like is his passion to continually disappoint.
Mets take Danny Graves. He had an off-year and an on-year last season. His opponent batting average has been rising over the past 3 campaigns.
Senators take Gabe Kapler. He looks like Adonis and swings the bat like Gabe Kotter. Anyone remember Kotter. If you do, welcome back.
Braves take AJ Burnett. He has an excellent fastball (averaging 92-94 mph) and overhand curve but is wild and injury-prone. After opening 2001 on the disabled list (broken foot), he had a solid year despite falling apart at midseason. He flashed good control late with only 13 walks in his last 392.1 innings, but he must sustain that all year to be an impact starter. Somehow I think there's a misprint in there somewhere.
Angels take Tony Batista. Boom or bust? We'll soon find out. He's taking over Ripken's hallowed ground and will surely disappoint the faithful who watched Cal over the years.
White Sox take Jason Varitek. Varitek was on his way to a breakout season in 2001 when he broke his elbow diving for a foul ball in June. His numbers were up in almost every category, and his K/BB ratio was the best of his career. Varitek recently reported excellent progress in his offseason rehab. He has moved beyond range-of-motion work and is now throwing a baseball, swinging a bat and lifting weights. Well, you just never know with catchers.
Yankees take Charles Johnson. He's one of the best defensive catchers in the game, and rock solid offensively for a catcher. A solid pick.
Red Sox take Daryle Ward. They keep talking about taking his incumbent job away from him, but he can hit so well that it may be difficult. That's what they say. Really, I can't see this guy putting up big numbers.
Colts take Ben Grieve. One time phenom prospect, he had a bad bad year last campaign. However, at age 26 this season the Colts are hoping he is just coming into his groove. The swing is still good. Now the head has to be reset.
Orioles take Ben Davis. Davis tired in the second half last season (.192 average) and has yet to live up to the status he gained as the No. 2 pick in the 1995 draft, but he is young enough to become a fine two-way player. Ditto. The only difference between Davis and Bench is Bench can still hit the fastball.
Cubs take Jose Cruz. Junior is hoping someday to be as good a player as his father, unlike the other Junior who already has better lifetime stats than his father. By the way, Dad played 19 seasons with a lifetime OPS of .774. Junior's at .806 in his first five seasons. However, if you consider the difference in the times, they're just about the same.
Round -1
Best Pick of the Round belongs to Red Sox who took Jose Ortiz 2b col.. Anyone playing in Coors is bound to have eye popping stats. Ortiz is just coming into the 25-28 prime years, and his 13 homers last year would be 40 over a full season. That would be huge at 2nd base. While he does have some shortcomings that could lead to his eventual demise, such as not being able to make contact with the ball (1 k every 6 ab), poor eye (1 walk every 15 ab), .240 batting average, I'm hedging that he will overcome the exuberance of youth, find patience, and be great.
Round +1
Pick of the Round goes to Angels selection of Ramon Hernandez c oak. Hernandez gained a reputation for his hitting while moving through the Athletics' farm system (.289 average in the minors), but, like many young catchers, he is developing slowly in the majors. He hit .291 with 11 homers in 203 at-bats after the All-Star break last year and has demonstrated solid contact skills. He also posted .376-6-33-2 in 157 at-bats in the Venezuelan winter league. Those are words of TSN. Winningham says: He'll be just 26 years old this coming season. He's young and durable and getting a little better every year. What's there not to like at the hardest position to find both games played and quality.
Round +2
Pick of the Round has to be Terrance Long taken by the White Sox. I mean, this guy is good, just read on: "
Long is inconsistent, but that will change with more experience. He already has been cutting back his slumps -- he hit 24 points better in the second half than the first last season. Scouts also are saying he has more power and speed than he has shown. But the most appealing thing about Long is his durability. His smooth defense and swing should help keep him off of the D.L. Fantasy Spin: Slowly but steadily, Long is moving up the fantasy outfielder ladder. Plus, since he was born on Feb. 29, he has had only 6 birthdays! He'll be 120 by the time he reaches 30. Depending on his durability as noted above, Long could be the leading all-time everything by the turn of the next Century.
Round +3
Round +4
Athletics take Kevin Millar of fla - Millar is coming off of a breakout year after finally getting a starting job, but still has no true position. With little competition in the OF, he should get plenty of playing time and have another solid season.
Reds take Dennis Tankersley sp sd - Tankersley has the best shot of San Deigo's young pitchers to make this year's squad. With a 94 mph fastball and a 90 mph slider, he should fit in nicely as a No. 5 starter.
Twins take Mike Williams rp pit - Last year Williams went from a closer on a bad team (Pit) to a set-up man on a contender (Hou). He's back to closing for a bad team (Pit again) and should be good for 20-25 saves.
Dodgers take Latroy Hawkins rp min - Hawkins' control problems lead to confidence problems, which lead to loosing the closer job. Eddie Guardado has been named the closer for MIN this year, but if he falters, look for Hawkins to pick up the slack.
Mets take Barry Larkin ss cin - Larkin has really gone south: bat speed is slower, range has shrunk, and arm is weak and inaccurate. Plus, he's missed 177 games in the past two seasons. I hope you have a back up.
Senators take Travis Lee 1b phi - Lee is a good fastball hitter in his physical peak. Good defense keeps him in the line-up. He's due for a breakout season...just like the last two years.
Braves take Vernon Wells of tor - a 5 tool, potential 30-30 player that could be a perennial All Star. Blue Jays have been patient with him, but this could be his year.
Athletics take Doug Davis rp tex (Phillies pick)- Davis is a consistant ground ball pitcher that gives up few walks, but his biggest asset could be the run support that he'll get with Texas' potent offense.
Angels take Scott Strickland rp mon - Another closer on a bad team that's better suited for middle relief. Strickland has a mid-90s fastball, but struggles to get lefties out (.276 BA). If Montreal wins a game, he should get a save.
White Sox take Lawrence Brian sp sd - Lawrence posted a 3.23 ERA in 15 starts. With a full season, he could win 12-15 games, but needs to break into the rotation first.
Yankees take Vinny Castilla 3b atl - Castilla has lost some bat speed, but has learned to become a better braking ball hitter. His strike out to walk ratio is deteriorating, and Turner Field will dampen his power, but he should still be good for 20 home runs and 70 RBIs.
Indians take Jose Macias 3b/of det - Macias is an athletic kid that can play any position. His shift to CF could distract him and lessen his value, but he should play every day and hit in the leadoff spot.
Red Sox take Byung-Hyun Kim rp ari - Kim's delivery makes it difficult to get a good look at his 90-plus mph fastball. Ideally, he's a set-up man, but he'll be the teams closer as long as Matt Mantei is either injured or ineffective.
Colt 45's take Octavio Dotel rp hou - Dotel is a dominant set-up man with electric stuff. He'll be a great closer one day, but not with Billy Wagner in front of him. Maybe he'd be better off in Pit. or Mon.
Orioles take Rick Helling sp ari - Helling had his ups and downs last year, but he's averaging 14 wins and 200-plus innings over the last three years. Maybe a change of scenery will do him good.
Tigers take Jason Johnson sp bal - This ain't Randy, but Jason still has first rate stuff. Durability is a question as he slumped in the second half last year, but he's still a legitimate No. 1 pitcher, even if it is in Baltimore.
Cardinals take Brian Tolberg sp sd - Tolberg uses his intelligence to compensate for shakey stuff. He may have to fight off some young competiton, but should still end up with a spot in the rotation.
Pirates take Mark Kotsay of sd - Kotsay hits well, runs well, and is a smart ballplayer, but does nothing spectacular. On a good team, he is a fourth outfielder...on San Deigo, he'll play every day.
Giants take Danys Baez p cle - Baez proved himself in the bullpen last year and could earn a spot in the rotation this year. He's got three pitches that he can dominate with. The only question is: is he really 24, or 42?
Cubs take Rick Reed sp min - Reed had a decent season last year, but posted a 5.40 ERA after being traded to the Twins. Could this be a view of things to come, or can he turn it around?
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Round +5
Athletics take Brent Abernathy 2b tb - Excellent instincts at the plate means that Abernathy will hit in the No. 2 spot, but he'll never hit home runs or steal bases.
Reds take Carlos Hernandez sp hou - Hernandez has been compared to Mike Hampton in his Asto years. He could make the starting rotation if his shoulder is completly healed (torn rotator cuff).
Twins take Austin Kearns of cin - Kearns will most likely start the year off in AAA to make sure he's back from his thumb injury. He could turn into a major force in an outfield with Griffey Jr. and Dunn before the season is over.
Dodgers take Steve Finley cf ari - Finley is injury prone and a streaky hitter, but his spectacular defense gives him plenty of playing time, which means plenty of at bats.
Mets take Eric Byrnes of oak - Byrnes' power display in winter ball really raised the eyebrows of his employers. He needs to prove himself this spring in order to earn a spot in a crowded outfield.
Senators take Felix Rodriguez rp sf - 9-1, 1.68 ERA, .996 WHIP, 91 K in 80 in...not bad.
Braves take Chad Fox rp mil - Fox has had a couple of surgeries on his pitching arm, but he's still effective. He should be the closer in Mil., if you think that's a good thing.
Phillies take David Justice of oak - Justice is still dangerous, as long as he's healthy. He has slipped into a carreer DH.
Angels take Jose Jimenez rp col - Great sinker and consistant closer, but Jiminez has been a victim of Coor's Field (4.09 ERA). Pitch him on the road and you'll be fine.
White Sox take Tony Clark 1b bos - Clark has to play every day and stay healthy to get into a rhythym. Anyone taking bets?
Yankees take Placido Polanco 3b/of stl - Polanco is a guy that can play every position and hit .300. He needs to find an every day position.
Indians take Kevin Appier sp ana - Appier improved his command last year which lowered his walks and raised his strike outs. He should be good for 200-plus innings and 10-12 wins in 2002.
Red Sox take Jason Tyner of tb - Tyner is a young speedster that will hit leadoff for TB. Too bad there's no one to drive him in.
Colt 45's take Esteban Yan rp rb - Yan has the physical talent to be a closer, but he lacks focus and consistency. He blew 1/3 of his save opportunities last year.
Orioles take Damion Easley 2b det - Easley has good power and adequate speed, but he can't hit a breaking ball. His average has dropped every year since '98.
Tigers take Miguel Batista sp ari - SP...RP...he'll do it all. Batista found his control last year which could be the key to staying in the rotation.
Cardinals take Eric Gagne sp la - Gagne has an above average fastball and great potential. He needs to pick a breaking pitch to concentrate on.
Pirates take Todd Hollandsworth of col - If healthy, Hollandsworth has a great advantage hitting in Coor's.
Giants take David Ortiz 1b min - Ortiz is strong with good bat speed, but can he come back from his injury?
Cubs take Kevin Jarvis sp - Jarvis had surprise success winning 12 games last year, but he had a 4.70 ERA and was among the league leaders in HR allowed with 37. These stats don't bode well for the future.