Men Are Like Horses!
Or, A Mathematical Analysis of Past Performance Predicting Future Outcome Involving Men Playing
Baseball.[I wrote this piece this past summer. It was the start of a daily log of my baseball betting foray.]
It is July 2000, and this time I really have decided to put the system to a test. There will be no more what ifs. Make a decision, lay a bet, see if it works. And so it began, just before the All-Star break on Saturday, July 8. There were two games that day that caught my fancy, as follows:
Dodgers at Mariners: Vegas had Seattle at –143 while I pegged them –242. This created a 99 differential on the Home Fave. Seattle won. How or why is inconsequential. A 143 unit Fave Bet gave a 100 unit win and put me plus 100 for the season.
Game Summary: Alex Rodriguez did not play but the M’s still blew out LA 11-0. Sele went to 11-3 with 7 shutout innings while the Dodgers rookie Gagne got lit. If I had known A Rod was out I may not have bet the game. Ignorance is bliss.
Diamondbacks at A’s: Vegas had Arizona as a +122 dog while I put them at a –169 fave. This created a 91 DIFFerential on the Visiting Dog. The A’s won. A 100 unit Dog Bet put my season back to even.
Game Summary: ‘Zona blew a 7-2 lead starting in the 8th and ending in the 10th. Brian Anderson did his job going 6.2 while giving up only 2 runs, but the pen got rocked. Meanwhile Appier did kinda as expected going 7 and giving up 5. Shoulda, coulda, woulda.
Sunday, July 9
There was but one game from this full slate on the last day before the All-Star break that caught my interest.
Devil Rays at Marlins: Vegas had the Marlins at –130 while I put that at –400. A huge 270 Dif went to the Home Fave. Florida won and my 130 unit bet netted a 100 unit win, leaving me up 100 on the season.
Game Summary: Letting a 9-5 lead almost slip away (déjà vu all over again, aka yesterday), FLA held on for a 10-9 win. Sanchez was disappointing based on his recent past performance but still got the win by surviving 5 innings while giving up 5 runs. Meanwhile, Rupe performed as I had hoped lasting only 2.2 while allowing 4 to score. Shoulda, coulda, phew!